01
Watch the market live
SpectralBot tracks price and probability on every candle as each BTC 15-minute market develops.
Trade BTC prediction markets with a clear signal.
SpectralBot AI analyzes every BTC 15-minute market and signals YES or NO only when confidence and edge are high.
0%Live first-signal accuracy — 30-day rolling production average†
0+Markets in out-of-sample validation
FreeTrial to start
How it works
A clear read, every 5 seconds.
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Follow the confidence and edge
Confidence is how sure the model is that the signal is right; Edge is its read on value at the current price. Both update every 5 seconds as the BTC 15-minute market develops.
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Get the signal the moment it fires
Every 5 seconds, the model compares the live setup against 12,000+ past BTC markets and turns it into one clear YES or NO signal.
Inside each signal
Built for a fast decision.
Every card gives you the whole picture in one glance — no spreadsheet, no second screen.
- A clear directionOne unambiguous YES or NO signal for the next time slot — no scores to interpret.
- The exact time slotEvery signal is tagged to the precise BTC 15-minute market it applies to.
- A tap to actEach signal links straight to the market so you can place the trade in seconds.
How it firesSpectralBot generates a signal when Confidence and Edge are high.
Performance
Live results first. Backtest second.
Live figures are a trailing 30-day production log of first signals — recorded and scored automatically against final market resolution. Validation figures are out-of-sample across 12,000+ consecutive BTC 15-minute markets. Nothing is excluded from either set.
Live — 30-day rolling production average83.3%
Live production results, trailing 30 days. First signals — confidence above the model's threshold, with a positive edge — recorded live before resolution.
Backtest · first signal per market (8,085 markets)88.5%
Methodology. Each signal carries a model-confidence score, isotonically calibrated per time slot and assigned at issuance. A signal fires when that calibrated confidence clears a fixed threshold set ex-ante, with a minimum edge over the market price, applied uniformly — signals are designated before resolution, never selected afterward. "First signal" is the earliest fired signal in each market. The live signal policy additionally holds a market's final two minutes to a near-certainty bar: signals there resolve correctly ~98–99% of the time but are economically negligible at those prices, so the live policy declines them. Trimming those easy wins is why the live figure sits below the backtest — a deliberate trade of headline accuracy for economic honesty.
† Backtest figures are simulated, out-of-sample results and do not represent actual trading. Live figures are a complete production signal record, not trading results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss. Individual results will vary materially.
CFTC Rule 4.41 Required Disclosure
THESE RESULTS ARE BASED ON SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS THAT HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE THE RESULTS SHOWN IN AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, THESE RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, BECAUSE THESE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THESE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Replays
Watch the last ten rounds.
Every signal from the ten most recent settled BTC 15-minute markets, played back against the price as it moved. Pick a round to replay it.
Pricing
Try the full feed free.
Every signal, identical for everyone — during your trial. After the trial, continue with a paid subscription.
Frequently asked.
01What is SpectralBot?
SpectralBot is a research-signal service for prediction markets. It reads BTC 15-minute markets in real time and signals YES or NO when confidence and edge are high, trained on patterns from 12,000+ historical markets.
02Does SpectralBot place trades for me?
No. SpectralBot is a signal service — a clear YES or NO signal when confidence and edge are high. You decide whether to act on a signal, and you place any trade yourself, in your own Kalshi account.
03How accurate are the signals?
Live, trailing 30-day production average: the first signal per market — confidence above the model's threshold, with a positive edge — resolved correctly 83.3% of the time. Out-of-sample backtesting across 12,000+ markets under the same signal policy. Signals fire on isotonically calibrated, per-time-slot confidence against a fixed ex-ante threshold — designated before resolution, never selected after. Backtest results are simulated and not a promise of future performance. Always apply your own judgment before trading.
04How fast are signals, and how often?
A fresh read every 5 seconds in real time, from market open through to resolution — so you're never waiting on the next read.
05Which markets does it cover?
BTC 15-minute prediction markets today. More liquid prediction markets are being added as the Cotes signal stack expands.
06Where do I actually place trades?
On Kalshi, in your own account. Each signal links straight to the relevant market, so you can place the trade there yourself.
07Do you ever hold my funds?
No. Your money always stays in your own Kalshi account, under Kalshi's custody. SpectralBot doesn't connect to your Kalshi account, and Cotes never holds, accesses, or moves your funds.
08How much does it cost?
Start with a free trial — full access to every signal. After the trial, a paid subscription applies.
09Should I act on every signal?
Not necessarily. Treat each signal as a fast, data-backed read — check the market, your size, and the timing before you trade. The final decision is always yours.