01
Watch the market live
SpectralBot tracks price and probability on every candle as each BTC 15-minute market develops.
Trade BTC prediction markets with a clear signal.
SpectralBot AI analyzes every BTC 15-minute market and signals YES or NO only when confidence and edge are high.
0%
Live first-signal accuracy — 30-day rolling production average†
0+
Markets in out-of-sample validation
24h
Free trial to start
How it works
A clear read, every minute.
02
Follow the confidence and edge
Confidence is how sure the model is that the call is right; Edge is its read on value at the current price. Both are recalculated every minute as the BTC 15-minute market develops.
03
Get the call each minute
Every minute, the model compares the live setup against 7,654 past BTC markets and turns it into one clear YES or NO call for that time slot.
Inside each signal
Built for a fast decision.
Every card gives you the whole picture in one glance — no spreadsheet, no second screen.
- A clear direction One unambiguous YES or NO call for the next time slot — no scores to interpret.
- The exact time slot Every call is tagged to the precise BTC 15-minute market it applies to.
- A tap to act Each signal links straight to the market so you can place the trade in seconds.
How it fires
SpectralBot generates a signal when Confidence and Edge are high.
Performance
Live results first. Backtest second.
Live figures are a trailing 30-day production signal log — every signal recorded and scored automatically against final market resolution. Validation figures are out-of-sample across 7,654 consecutive BTC 15-minute markets, April–July 2026. Nothing is excluded from either set.
Live — 30-day rolling production average
85.1%
Live production results, trailing 30 days. First-signal calls, recorded live before resolution.
Live · last signal per market
87.7%
Live · all signals
88.8%
Backtest · first signal per market (6,528 markets)
90.3%
Backtest · last signal per market
92.9%
Backtest · all signals (29,861)
95.1%
Methodology. Each signal carries a model-confidence score, isotonically calibrated per time slot and assigned at issuance. A signal fires when that calibrated confidence clears a fixed threshold set ex-ante and applied uniformly — signals are designated before resolution, never selected afterward. "First/last signal" is the earliest/latest fired signal in each market; "all signals" is every fired signal. Production execution additionally holds a market's final two minutes to a near-certainty bar: signals there resolve correctly ~98–99% of the time but are economically negligible at those prices, so production declines them. Trimming those easy wins is why the live all-signal figure sits below the backtest — a deliberate trade of headline accuracy for economic honesty.
† Backtest figures are simulated, out-of-sample results and do not represent actual trading. Live figures are a complete production signal record, not trading results. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading event contracts involves substantial risk of loss. Individual results will vary materially.
CFTC Rule 4.41 Required Disclosure
THESE RESULTS ARE BASED ON SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS THAT HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE THE RESULTS SHOWN IN AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, THESE RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, BECAUSE THESE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THESE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER- OR OVER-COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Pricing
Try the full feed free for 24 hours.
Every signal, every minute, identical for everyone — during your trial. After 24 hours, continue with a paid subscription.
Frequently asked.
01 What is SpectralBot?
SpectralBot is a research-signal service for prediction markets. It reads BTC 15-minute markets in real time and delivers a clear YES or NO call every minute, trained on patterns from 7,500+ historical markets.
02 Does SpectralBot place trades for me?
Only when you choose to. By default it's a signal service — a clear YES or NO call every minute. Connect your Kalshi account and you can act on a call with one tap, and SpectralBot places that order on Kalshi for you. You pick which calls to take; nothing is traded automatically.
03 How accurate are the signals?
Live, trailing 30-day production average: the first signal per market resolved correctly 85.1% of the time, the last signal 87.7%, and all fired signals 88.8%. Out-of-sample backtesting across 7,654 markets under the same signal policy: 90.3% / 92.9% / 95.1%. Signals fire on isotonically calibrated, per-time-slot confidence against a fixed ex-ante threshold — designated before resolution, never selected after. Backtest results are simulated and not a promise of future performance. Always apply your own judgment before trading.
04 How fast are signals, and how often?
A fresh YES or NO call every minute in real time, from market open through to resolution — so you're never waiting on the next read.
05 Which markets does it cover?
BTC 15-minute prediction markets today. More liquid prediction markets are being added as the Cotes signal stack expands.
06 Where do I actually place trades?
On Kalshi. Connect your Kalshi account to SpectralBot and each signal taps straight through to the relevant market, so you can place the trade in seconds.
07 Do you ever hold my funds?
No. Your money always stays in your own Kalshi account, under Kalshi's custody — Cotes never holds or withdraws funds. Connecting Kalshi uses its secure authorization, not raw private keys, so the trades you approve can be placed for you, and you can revoke access at any time.
08 How much does it cost?
Start with a 24-hour free trial — full access to every signal. After the trial, a paid subscription applies.
09 Should I act on every signal?
Not necessarily. Treat each call as a fast, data-backed read — check the market, your size, and the timing before you trade. The final decision is always yours.