The question each market asks
A new market opens every 15 minutes. Kalshi's rules for each one read like this (from a market that ran 11:45 PM to 12:00 AM EDT):
If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12:00 AM EDT on Oct 6, 2026 is at least the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 11:45 PM EDT on October 5, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
So YES means "up or flat over the 15 minutes" and NO means "down". The "target price" shown in Kalshi's app is the opening average.
What decides the result
- The index, not an exchange. Settlement uses CF Benchmarks' Bitcoin Real-Time Index, which aggregates prices from several major exchanges. The price you see on Coinbase or a chart can differ from it.
- A one-minute average. In the last minute before the close, 60 index prices are collected, one per second, and averaged, rounded to two decimals. The open is measured the same way. A spike in the final seconds moves the average far less than it moves the live price.
- $1 per winning contract. A YES contract pays $1.00 if the close average is at least the open average. A NO contract pays $1.00 if it's lower. The losing side pays nothing.
What the prices mean
Contracts trade between 1¢ and 99¢. A YES price of 62¢ means the market, as a whole, is paying 62¢ for a $1 payout if bitcoin finishes up — roughly a 62% implied chance, before fees. Buying at that price only makes sense if you think the real chance is higher than 62%. That gap between your estimate and the price is the edge, and it matters more than how often you win. Why a 90% win rate can still lose money works through the numbers.
Things that catch new traders
- Watching the wrong price. The market settles on the BRTI average, so an exchange chart can look "up" while the market resolves NO.
- Treating late prices as free money. Late in a market, the leading side often trades at 90¢ or more. Those contracts usually win, but each loss costs nine or more wins.
- Fees. Kalshi charges trading fees, which raise the win rate you need to break even. Check Kalshi's current fee schedule.