What we measured
We record the YES bid of every Kalshi BTC 15-minute market once a second. For each market that settled between July 16 and October 8, 2026, we took the bid at 14, 10, 7, 5, 3, 2 and 1 minute and 30 seconds before close, grouped those 59,003 snapshots into 5¢ price buckets, and counted how often YES won.
| YES bid | Count | Avg bid | YES won | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–5¢ | 8,325 | 1.5¢ | 1.5% | +0.0 |
| 5–10¢ | 2,614 | 7.3¢ | 7.0% | -0.3 |
| 10–15¢ | 1,928 | 12.0¢ | 11.4% | -0.6 |
| 15–20¢ | 1,728 | 16.9¢ | 17.3% | +0.4 |
| 20–25¢ | 1,678 | 21.9¢ | 21.5% | -0.4 |
| 25–30¢ | 1,846 | 27.0¢ | 26.3% | -0.7 |
| 30–35¢ | 1,943 | 32.0¢ | 33.6% | +1.6 |
| 35–40¢ | 2,234 | 37.1¢ | 37.6% | +0.5 |
| 40–45¢ | 2,427 | 42.0¢ | 40.4% | -1.6 |
| 45–50¢ | 2,702 | 47.0¢ | 45.4% | -1.6 |
| 50–55¢ | 2,825 | 51.9¢ | 51.9% | -0.0 |
| 55–60¢ | 2,362 | 57.0¢ | 58.2% | +1.2 |
| 60–65¢ | 2,214 | 62.0¢ | 62.2% | +0.2 |
| 65–70¢ | 1,996 | 67.0¢ | 67.0% | +0.0 |
| 70–75¢ | 1,734 | 72.0¢ | 73.0% | +1.0 |
| 75–80¢ | 1,655 | 77.0¢ | 76.9% | -0.1 |
| 80–85¢ | 1,720 | 82.0¢ | 83.7% | +1.7 |
| 85–90¢ | 1,812 | 87.0¢ | 87.6% | +0.6 |
| 90–95¢ | 2,671 | 92.6¢ | 93.7% | +1.1 |
| 95–100¢ | 12,589 | 98.9¢ | 99.1% | +0.2 |
Count is the number of snapshots; gap is the win rate minus the average bid, in percentage points. Every bucket lands within about 2 points of its price. Cheap contracts didn't win more often than their price implied, and expensive ones didn't either. There's no price level where simply buying was a free edge.
The 95–99¢ "sure things"
Contracts bid at 95¢ or more won 99.1% of the time, against an average bid of 98.9¢. Before costs that's about 0.1¢ of margin. One loss at 99¢ wipes out roughly 99 wins at 1¢ each, so the spread and the fee decide whether these trades are worth anything, and usually they aren't.
It changes with time left
The 90–95¢ bucket wasn't steady through the market. At 2–3 minutes before close it won less often than its price, then more often again in the last minute. Some of these groups are small, so treat single rows as noisy.
| Time left | 90–95¢ won | 95–100¢ won |
|---|---|---|
| 10 min | 97.1% (n=205) | 92.1% (n=38) |
| 7 min | 95.1% (n=566) | 97.5% (n=393) |
| 5 min | 94.9% (n=687) | 97.1% (n=985) |
| 3 min | 91.6% (n=548) | 98.6% (n=1,935) |
| 2 min | 89.3% (n=354) | 98.8% (n=2,506) |
| 1 min | 93.7% (n=207) | 99.6% (n=3,115) |
| 30 sec | 97.1% (n=104) | 99.9% (n=3,617) |
What this means for a trade
If the price is already a fair estimate, win rate tells you nothing on its own. A trade only has an edge when you have a reason to think the real chance is higher than the price you pay, by more than the spread and fee. That's the idea behind why a 90% win rate can still lose money, and it's how SpectralEdge decides when to signal: only when its calibrated confidence beats the current price by a set margin.
Limits of this data
- Prices are the YES bid. Buying YES costs the ask, which is higher; buying NO costs 100¢ minus the YES bid.
- Snapshots where the bid was exactly 0¢ or 100¢ are left out.
- It covers twelve weeks of BTC markets only. Other periods and other assets may behave differently.
- This describes past market prices. It isn't a forecast or a trading recommendation.
The full table, by price bucket and time before close, is available as a CSV download.