Signals, bots and dashboards are different tools
- Signal services tell you which side to take and when. You decide whether to trade, and you place the order yourself.
- Trading bots place orders on your Kalshi account through its API. Some run on your own machine; some are hosted and need your API key.
- Dashboards and data tools show the live market, the strike, the order book or the fee. They inform a decision but don't make one.
Some products combine these. Ask which one you are actually buying, because each needs different trust: a signal needs a track record, a bot needs your keys, and a dashboard needs accurate data.
What a signal should tell you
| Field | Why it matters |
|---|---|
| Market and side | Which 15-minute market, and YES (up or flat) or NO (down) |
| Time | When it fired, so it can't be chosen after the result |
| Price | What the side cost at that moment; this sets the break-even win rate |
| Confidence | The model's probability that the side wins |
| Edge | Confidence minus price: what's left after the market's own estimate |
| Outcome | Win or loss, graded against Kalshi's settlement |
A call without a price can't be judged. A YES at 60¢ that wins 70% of the time is a good call; the same win rate at 75¢ loses money.
How to grade a signal service yourself
- Pair win rate with average price. The average entry price is the break-even win rate before fees. A service that wins 91% of calls at an average of 92¢ is losing. See why a 90% win rate can still lose money.
- Check the record was written before settlement. Every call should carry a timestamp from before its market closed, and losses should stay in the log.
- Count the markets. With a new market every 15 minutes, a week is about 670 markets. A record of a few dozen calls says little.
- Compare with the market itself. Kalshi's prices already track how often each side wins: across 9,312 markets, every 5¢ band won within about 2 points of its price. A service has to beat that, not 50%. The data is in how often 90¢ contracts win.
- Allow for fees. Kalshi's fee is largest near 50¢. Can you lose money on Kalshi? works through one.
What a SpectralEdge signal contains
SpectralEdge reads each Kalshi BTC 15-minute market every 5 seconds and signals only when calibrated confidence clears a fixed threshold and the price leaves a minimum edge. Each signal carries the side, the time, the confidence, the entry price, the edge and, after settlement, the outcome. The Public Signals API returns settled markets with every signal graded, so a subscriber can compute win rate against average entry price directly. How SpectralEdge decides covers the method.
SpectralEdge doesn't place trades, doesn't connect to your Kalshi account and never holds your funds.